Challenges Ahead: What Census Data Reveals about the Wealth Gap and Uninsured Rate as Florida Braces for H.R. 1

Introduction

On September 9, 2025, the Census Bureau released reports on income, poverty, and health insurance coverage changes in the United States between 2023 and 2024. Per the Census Bureau’s findings, while the nation’s median household income remained statistically flat in 2024, inequality persists. Just looking at 2024, there is still a gap between wealthy and low- to moderate-income households. Additionally, "post-tax" measures confirm that taxes paid, tax credits, and noncash public assistance reduce income disparities; however, they do not eliminate them. The Census Bureau’s findings also show that Florida’s uninsured rates are worsening, especially for children, and remain well above national averages.

Against this backdrop, H.R. 1 poses a significant challenge to Floridians as millions risk losing access to basic needs services, assistance, and health insurance,while wealthy households benefit the most. To make matters worse, state economists now project a $1.5 billion deficit in FY 2027-28 and a $6.6 billion deficit in FY 2028-29, which means policymakers will have limited options to address the needs of Floridians.

While Census Confirms Taxes and Transfers Reduce Inequality, H.R. 1 Threatens to Undercut It

The Census Bureau’s “Income in the United States” report uses “money income,” which excludes taxes paid, tax credits, and noncash public assistance (e.g., food assistance or health coverage). Per the report, between 2023 and 2024, median household income did not change “significantly,” meaning that it is uncertain whether the change was due to a broader trend or shift.

The passage of H.R. 1 in July 2025, which locks in sustained benefits for the wealthiest Americans while weakening basic needs programs for people paid low wages, is particularly consequential.

Although post-tax median income also exhibited insignificant change between years, data from 2024 can be looked at to measure inequality. As such, post-tax measures indicate lower inequality than pretax figures, highlighting how taxes paid, credits, and public benefits increase equity. Specifically, using post-tax income, the 2024 Gini index (a measure of inequality) declined modestly compared to pre-tax money income. Conclusively, post-tax in 2024, households in the highest quintile captured 48.2 percent compared with 3.8 percent for the bottom quintile.

The passage of H.R. 1 in July 2025, which locks in sustained benefits for the wealthiest Americans while weakening basic needs programs for people paid low wages, is particularly consequential. It amplifies the very disparities that the Census Bureau’s latest data reveal: while taxes and transfers help rebalance resources, skewed tax cuts and weakened income supports deepen inequality and increase hardship. Given its provisions, H.R. 1 could set Florida on a backward course:

According to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), the richest 1 percent of households in Florida (i.e., those earning more than $1.1 million) are projected to receive an average annual tax cut of roughly $95,110. In contrast, households earning low- to moderate-income will receive modest savings—or, in some cases, higher tax burdens due to the impact of higher import taxes and cuts to basic needs programs.
ITEP notes that changes to the Child Tax Credit will make it so that many households earning low-income will not receive the full credit, rendering the policy less effective at reducing child poverty.
The federal government will dramatically raise costs and reduce food assistance for millions of people by cutting funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) by $186 billion through 2034. In Florida, to keep running SNAP, policymakers will have to pay an additional $205 million annually beginning in FY 2026-2027; and new administrative requirements will impact roughly 1.7 million households.

Census Data Confirm Florida’s Coverage Gaps, H.R. 1 Deepens the Crisis

The Census Bureau’s “Health Insurance Coverage by State” report examines state-level changes in uninsured rates across all ages using 2023 and 2024 American Community Survey (ACS) 1-year data. According to the Census, the U.S. uninsured rate rose to 8.2 percent in 2024, a statistically significant increase from 7.9 percent in 2023.

In Florida, uninsured rates remains persistently above the U.S. average:

The uninsured rate for all ages increased from 10.7 percent to 10.9 percent in 2024, higher than the national average.
For adults 19-64, the uninsured rate remained at 15.5 percent, well above the U.S. average of 11.3 percent.
The uninsured rate for children under 19 increased from 7.5 percent to 8.5 percent, a statistically significant change that positions the state well above the national average of 6 percent.

Overall, there were 15 states with uninsured rates higher than the national average, and nearly half of them have not expanded Medicaid eligibility, including Florida. Of these states, nine were in the South. The Census Bureau confirms that in Florida, and other non-Medicaid expansion states, uninsured rates remain higher.

Without these enhancements [on premium tax credits], families will face higher premium costs at the same time that Medicaid access is shrinking. As a result, Florida can expect an increase of 1.4 million to 1.9 million more uninsured residents by 2034.

Amid rising uninsurance rates, H.R. 1 will exacerbate the situation by allowing the enhanced subsidies for people receiving insurance coverage through Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans (Enhanced Premium Tax Credits, or EPTCs) to expire at the end of 2025, creating more administrative hurdles for enrollment, and cutting nearly $1 trillion from health care spending over the next decade. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) notes that enhancements to the premium tax credits helped mitigate the effects of the Medicaid unwinding, as those disenrolled transitioned to the ACA marketplace — in Florida, EPTCs have helped over 4.7 million people afford coverage since 2021. Without these enhancements, families will face higher premium costs at the same time that Medicaid access is shrinking. As a result, Florida can expect an increase of 1.4 million to 1.9 million more uninsured residents by 2034.

USDA to End Longstanding Survey on Food Security

The Census Bureau’s data provides a baseline for understanding the realities Floridians face. These reports show that while taxes and transfers play a measurable role in reducing inequality and limiting hardship, gains remain uneven — particularly for children. The passage of H.R. 1 threatens to widen these gaps by locking in benefits for the wealthiest households while cutting the very programs that help stabilize income and expand health coverage. With looming state budget shortfalls and millions at risk of losing food assistance, health coverage, and tax credits, policymakers need clear, reliable data to anticipate challenges and craft solutions.

Unfortunately, the future of reliable data publications is not always certain. For example, the U.S. Department to Agriculture (USDA) announced on September 20, 2025, that it will stop conducting its annual household Food Security survey. The survey, sponsored by USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), provided the foundation for USDA’s yearly report on whether households have consistent and dependable access to food. This report has been the benchmark for assessing food security in the United States for the last three decades. Discontinuing the hunger survey comes at the worst possible time for the state. Without the report, the public loses access to a valuable gauge of how policies (like H.R. 1) are impacting Floridians. At the same time, state and federal policymakers are left without the data and analysis necessary to inform their decisions about SNAP and other programs that keep families healthy and help them put food on the table.

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