July 18, 2025

Raising the Alarm on the Oncoming Tidal Wave of Health Care Coverage Loss for Florida

The federal reconciliation bill signed into law on July 4, 2025, includes significant cuts to Medicaid, which will have devastating impacts on Floridians’ health and well-being. Many of the provisions to undo Medicaid protections in H.R. 1, or the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act, are set to take effect at varying points over the next few years, meaning the full scope of impacts will be delayed. However, H.R. 1 also includes changes to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace that will take effect sooner— notably, allowing the enhanced subsidies for people receiving insurance coverage through ACA plans to expire at the end of 2025 and creating more hurdles to enrollment. Together, the cuts to Medicaid and cuts to ACA Marketplace subsidies set Florida up for an impending health care coverage disaster.

Since 2015, Florida has had the highest number of individuals utilizing the ACA Marketplace to gain health insurance. The enhanced premium tax credits passed in the American Rescue Plan Act in 2021 and extended in the Inflation Reduction Act through 2025 allowed for more people to utilize the ACA Marketplace and considerably lowered premium costs. Because of these improvements, Florida’s ACA Marketplace enrollment has risen to a record-setting 4.7 million people, or over one in five Floridians. 

Because Florida has historically benefited the most from the premium tax credits and ACA Marketplace, Florida is also the state that will be most harmed by the new restrictions and subsidy cuts. Congress has not elected to extend these enhanced subsidies, which will expire at the end of this year, and has enacted new rules and requirements that will make it harder for people to get and stay on Marketplace plans. According to KFF, the combined impact of these changes to the ACA Marketplace and cuts to Medicaid will result in a staggering 2.3 million people in Florida losing their health insurance. Of these 2.3 million Floridians, 2.2 million (96 percent) are projected to lose their insurance because of the ACA Marketplace changes that will begin in January 2026.

As a state that has not expanded its Medicaid program, Florida will be particularly hard hit by this coverage loss. Floridians with low income — people between 100 and 138 percent of the federal poverty level who do not qualify for Medicaid — have relied on the Marketplace for health coverage, especially on the enhanced subsidies. Non-expansion states are projected to be impacted especially hard in terms of ACA enrollment, with one study estimating that from 53 to 64 percent of ACA Marketplace enrollees will lose coverage. 

As a result of H.R. 1’s cuts and new rules, Florida’s rate of uninsured individuals will double, going from a historic low of 10.7 percent in 2023 to a catastrophic high of 19.7 percent starting in 2026. (See Figure 1.) The impacts will be stark — and will reverberate far beyond the doctor’s office. For one, the level of uncompensated care for health care providers, or the cost of providing care for people without insurance who are unable to afford payment, is poised to skyrocket. One analysis pegged this number at $5.2 billion for Florida — the most in the nation. This is going to have a devastating impact on health care providers across the state, especially ones that serve low-to-moderate income and rural communities. 

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