August 19, 2026

‘A Perfect Storm’: Florida Counties Could be Hit with FEMA Cuts and Amendment 3’s Property Tax Reduction at Same Time, Think Tank Warns

In Bay and Lee Counties, a Repeat Storm Under Amendment 3’s Property Tax Reduction and Proposed FEMA Cuts Would Exceed the Entire Annual Property Tax Levy

STATEWIDE, Fla. - Two potential threats to disaster recovery efforts, Florida’s Amendment 3 and proposed cuts to Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) funding, would thwart disaster recovery efforts in counties impacted by hurricanes, especially those that are under-resourced, the non-partisan Florida Policy Institute is cautioning in its latest analysis.

Amendment 3, which is on the ballot in 2026, would increase the state’s homestead exemption, create a pathway for the full elimination of non-school property taxes on homesteads, and reduce the assessment growth cap on non-homesteaded properties. The estimated $12-billion reduction in local revenue that localities would face under Amendment 3 would put local services funded with property tax revenue, including disaster recovery efforts, at risk. At the same time, a recent report from the FEMA Review Council — established by the Trump Administration — includes a recommendation to reduce FEMA’s Public Assistance reimbursement share from 75 to 50 percent. In practice, FPI points out, the cut would be far deeper: FEMA reimbursed Florida at 100 percent for hurricanes Michael, Ian, Helene, and Milton, and at 90 percent for Irma. So, the review council’s proposed change would amount to a 40-50 percent reduction, shifting billions in recovery costs onto state and local governments.

FPI examined the estimated local revenue losses under Amendment 3 and added in new county disaster costs if FEMA had reimbursed Florida’s five most significant recent hurricanes at the FEMA Review Council’s proposed 50 percent rate. FPI found:

  • Monroe County’s added disaster costs for Hurricane Irma at the proposed 50% match, plus the recurring revenue loss under Amendment 3, would be 39% of Monroe County’s annual property tax levy.
  • Bay County’s added disaster costs for Hurricane Michael at the proposed 50% match, plus the recurring revenue loss under Amendment 3, would be 143% of Bay County’s annual property tax levy.
  • Lee County’s added disaster costs for Hurricane Ian at the proposed 50% match, plus the recurring revenue loss under Amendment 3, would be 107% of Lee County’s annual property tax levy.
  • Taylor County’s added disaster costs for Hurricane Helene at the proposed 50% match, plus the recurring revenue loss under Amendment 3, would be 33% of Taylor County’s annual property tax levy.
  • Sarasota County’s added disaster costs for Hurricane Milton at the proposed 50% match, plus the recurring revenue loss under Amendment 3, would be 64% of Sarasota County’s annual property tax levy.

“In a hurricane-prone state like Florida, FEMA cuts, along with the drastic reduction in property tax revenue expected under Amendment 3, would be a recipe for disaster — a perfect storm,” said Sadaf Knight, CEO of FPI. “Transparently, under Amendment 3, Floridians would be left in the lurch in the aftermath of a hurricane, with fewer recovery services they have come to rely on — from clearing of debris to major infrastructure repairs.”

“Florida’s voters deserve the whole story when it comes to Amendment 3’s impact on hurricane clean up and repairs. The truth is, on top of proposed FEMA cuts, Amendment 3 would be a disaster for disaster response,” said Ethan Frey, visiting fellow at FPI. “Property taxes are how a county insures itself against hurricanes and extreme weather. It’s what gets the lights back on and the debris off your street. Amendment 3 effectively cancels that coverage.”

“Bay County had to borrow $100 million with interest from the bank to get through Hurricane Michael,” Frey added. “And that’s with Washington covering 90 percent of the bill and the county’s tax base fully intact. Amendment 3 and the proposed FEMA cuts would take away both.”

The FEMA Review Council was established by the Trump Administration in January 2025, and in May 2026, it released its recommendations, which called for moving a substantially larger share of recovery costs onto states, local governments, and households. The recommendations require congressional approval.  

FPI is an independent, nonpartisan and nonprofit organization dedicated to advancing state policies and budgets that improve the economic mobility and quality of life for all Floridians.

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